Slowing US Economic Growth in Q3 Brings Down SEI from Q2
Thursday October 29, 2015
Based upon today’s U.S. third quarter GDP “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, StayingEven.com provides an initial estimate of the Q3 2015 Staying Even Index (SEI) at 2.2% and the YTD SEI through Q3 at 2.8%, down from a YTD Q2 value of 3.1%.
The SEI measures the year-to-year income growth required for individuals to keep up in the U.S. economy – or to “stay even” with where they were in the prior year period. The YTD 2.8% growth in the SEI is significantly higher than the reported 0.0% average increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to the year ago period, demonstrating that raises that keep up with reported inflation are not sufficient to stay even in the growing U.S. economy.
The 2.8% Q3 YTD increase in the Staying Even Index (SEI) is based upon reported YTD Q3 year-over-year nominal GDP growth of 3.5% and average population growth of 0.7%. The initial SEI estimated growth of 2.2% within Q3 is based upon 2.9% Q3 nominal GDP growth and population growth of 0.7%.
These estimates suggest that individuals whose YTD Q3 2015 total income from all sources grew by more than 2.8% from the same period in 2014 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income grew by less than this fell behind compared to the prior year.
StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised over the coming months and as future quarter GDP estimates are released. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.
| Exhibit 1: SEI and CPI Growth Rates | ||||||||
| Five Years | ||||||||
| LTM 9/30/2015 | CY 2014 | Ending 12/31/2014 | ||||||
| CPI-U | SEI | CPI-U | SEI | CPI-U | SEI | |||
| Value at end of period | 237.9 | 2376.9 | 234.8 | 2328.8 | 234.8 | 2328.8 | ||
| Value at beginning of period | 238.0 | 2312.2 | 233.0 | 2253.3 | 215.9 | 2009.2 | ||
| Growth From Beginning of Period | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 8.7% | 15.9% | ||
| End of Period Value of Beginning $10 | $10.00 | $10.28 | $10.08 | $10.33 | $10.87 | $11.59 | ||
##
To find out whether you have gotten ahead and to learn more about the Index, please follow @stayingeven on Twitter and visit us at StayingEven.com. Contact: .