January 31, 2021

The initial reading of the Full Year 2020 Staying Even Index is -2.8%, incorporating the US Government “Advance” estimate of Q4 2020 GDP, as well as revisions to prior period GDP. The 2020 slowdown in US economic activity due to COVID-19 kept the index in negative territory for the full year, for the first time since 2009.

The 2020 reading of -2.8% is below the 2020 1.2% year on year increase in the average consumer price index (CPI) for the period, as GDP declined in absolute terms while population grew. SEI readings below CPI are unusual, with this being the fifth time since 2000, and the CPI reading of 4 points higher than the SEI represents the greatest positive gap since 1980, as the 2020 economy exhibited signs of stagflation.

The -2.8% change in the YTD 2020 Staying Even Index (SEI) is based upon reported YTD year on year nominal GDP growth of -2.3% and estimated annual population growth of 0.5%.

These projections suggest that individuals whose 2020 total income from all sources (after tax) grew at all, or declined by less than 2.8%, from 2019 expanded their adjusted share of the U.S. economy, and those whose total income declined by more than 2.8% fell behind compared to the prior year. Notably, individuals who were able to achieve income growth in line with inflation expanded their share of the US economic pie, an unusual occurrence. SEI growth for calendar year 2019, updated for GDP estimate updates through today, is estimated was 3.5%.

StayingEven.com will publish updates to these figures as GDP and population estimates are revised. We are dedicated to helping individuals understand what income growth is required to keep up in the U.S. Economy.